Can We Apply “Moneyball” For Your Business?
Spring is in the air and for sports enthusiasts have much time for baseball. Now I am not a big fan of baseball or the statistics page in the sports section of newspapers, but I just read the book Moneyball by Michael Lewis. If you have even a passing interest in baseball, you will enjoy this book. This book is not just about baseball, but the statistical power to the results with minimum cost to maximize. In other words, it’s Six Sigma baseball.
Baseball has a limiting belief that you have a lot of money for many races to win. (Companies have the same confidence you ever heard anyone in your company say that if we only had more money we can do more, hire better people, increase income, etc..)
While the New York Yankees have more than $ 120 million to spend on players in 2002, the Oakland A’s less than $ 40 million. A team like the poor, even a star player or players can not afford on the average. The only way for A to outperform their rivals is to find undervalued players who have their vaults to the top statistical performance. A realizes that “it does not really matter how much money you have than how well you spend. ”
Looks good, is not everything
Finding players is long exploration work that most of their recommendations based on gut feelings and what they can “see”. Unfortunately, someone who looks good does not perform as well as some that are not doing “good.” A man realized that “the mind tricks on you, there are many people who could not see when you watch a baseball game .. “And every trick is a financial opportunity for people to see through the illusion.
“Naked eye has enough tools to learn what you need to know.” Difference between BAT and a.275 a.300 hitter is one hit per two weeks. Based on this inability to “see” the performance, Exploring perceptions began to combine them with the information found surfing the Internet. “We combine what we see, but do not be affected by what we see.”
Systematic Research
A realizes that carrying out the evaluation is a process not an event. So A is defined to the game using statistical data and insights provided by outsiders named Bill James baseball signed to analyze. One of the insights of James is that baseball has “meaningful things to count.” (Businesses do too!)
James said: “Most of the traditional knowledge that sport ridiculous Hokum.” (The same applies in business How many times have you heard of the people in your company to say?. “We can not because …” and then a combination of legal and folklore)
Everyone knows that the club won the match ball with the scored, but everyone thinks that running is a function of average success (hits / at bats). It is not. James the hypothesis that walking is a function of the base rate plus hit. An insight that is important. Batter who gets more runs scored. James came up with a formula that is quite accurate:
Running = ((hits + runs) * Number of Base) / (at bats + runs)
Poor measurement can lead to poor performance. One of the things is the number of baseball fielding error. But you only pay when you close the error handling of the ball. If you slow that you can not get the ball lands, it can not be a mistake. Statistics has embarked on a baseball field cut into zones and the measurement of response to the ball accurately.
A star is Paul DePodesta Statistics. “Paul did not play pro ball Paul is a graduate of Harvard .. “He sat in a room with a laptop looking at the statistics. What the scouts see something, Paul’s view on the percentage basis (ie, walking). The finding that instead of all to hit, some players control of the strike zone, pitchers wear and attractive to walk again. Walk = walk more. Have higher = more wins.
Results
An Oakland won more regular season than any team except for the Atlanta Braves. She went to the playoffs for three consecutive years and gave the Yankees run for their money. A paid approximately $ 500,000 per win and most of the other teams paid more than one million per win, some as high as three million per win.
Strategy
The finding that baseball managers tend to develop strategies that are least likely to fail than to choose the most efficient strategy to choose. (Is that not the case in your company? People Not easier than finding success?)
A manager, Billy Beane, said: “Assembly Nobodies in cruel efficient machine for winning baseball games and watching them become stars is one of the joys of running a bad baseball team.” As Lewis said: “Superior management could still run circles around a high pile of cash.” And is not that the essence of Lean Six Sigma: Using Data to outmanage and outperform your competitors?
Insight
“If the gross miscalculation of the value they place on the baseball field, has said what about performance in line for another job?” Are you willing to switch from the visible measurable performance?
Too many people make decisions based on outcomes rather than processes. Are you willing to take your attention away from the process?
A baseball has a willingness to reconsider. You need “strong willingness to rethink everything. “Are you willing to rethink how your business works?” Heresy is an opportunity. ”
You need people outside to see what you can not.
What is “ridiculous lie?” You What steps do you already have to see through the illusion? What actions do you need?
As tradition as unscientific as baseball can learn to respond to the scientific method, why can not you?
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